河北省冬小麦越冬冻害风险分析

Analysis on the Risk of Ferezing Injury to Winter Wheat in Hebei Province

doi:
摘要:
利用河北省10站点34年的气象资料,采用越冬冻害因子权重法分析了冬小麦越冬冻害发生风险及时空变化规律.结果表明,河北平原南部的邯郸、邢台南部一带为冻害发生风险低值区,河北冬麦区北部偏东的廊坊、沧州一带为高值区,保定、石家庄、衡水等河北平原中部地区为中值区,20世纪80年代冻害发生风险最高,70年代次之,90年代及2000年以后冻害发生风险依次降低.20世纪80年代以后所选的全部站点其冻害发生风险的线性趋势都呈下降态势.各地34年中越冬期负积温、极端最低温度均呈明显上升趋势.黑龙港区中度以上越冬冻害发生的风险概率明显高于山前平原区.山前平原区冬小麦发生重度冻害的平均风险概率为4年1遇,黑龙港区为3年1遇;2个生态类型区冬小麦发生极重度冻害的平均风险概率约10年1遇.
Abstract:
Based on the meteorological data of 10 locations over 34 years in Hebei Province,the risk and temporal and spatial variation of winter freezing injury were analyzed by winter wheat freezing injury factor weight method.The results showed that:the southern plains of Hebei such as the south parts of Handan and Xingtai were the low-risk area of freezing injury;the north-east part of Hebei such as Langfang and Cangzhou area were high-risk areas;the central plain regions of Hebei such as Baoding,Shijiazhuang and Hengshui were middle-risk area.In the 1980′s,freezing injury occurred at its highest risk,followed by 1970′s,after 1990′s and 2000 freezing injury risk reduced gradually.After 1980′s,the freezing injury risk of all the selected sites declined in a linear trend.During the 34-year's time,negative accumulated temperature in winter and extreme mini-mum temperature showed a clear upward trend.The occurrence probability of moderate freezing injury in Heilonggang was significantly higher than the probability of Piedmont Plains.The average risk probability of severe freezing injury occurred once among 4 years in the Piedmont Plains,the area of Heilonggang occurred once among 3 years;the average risk of very severe freezing injury occurred once among 10 years at the two ecotype areas.
作者 李晴[1]    甄文超[2]
Author: LI Qing[1]    ZHEN Wen-chao[2]
作者单位
  1. 河北省安国市气象局,河北安国071200;河北农业大学农学院,河北保定071001
  2. 河北农业大学植物保护学院,河北保定,071001
刊 名: 安徽农业科学   ISTICPKU
Journal: Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
年,卷(期) 2017, 45(28)
分类号 S426
关键词: 冬小麦 知识脉络    越冬冻害 知识脉络    风险分析 知识脉络    河北省 知识脉络   
Keywords: Winter wheat    Freezing injury    Risk analysis    Hebei Province   
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基金项目 国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重大项目课题
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